ESA Technology Market Assessments: understanding the foreseen demand for Solar Generators and Solar Cells • Mar 2026

In the frame of the 2nd Cycle 2025 of the European Space Technology Harmonisation process, ESA and Novaspace have carried out a market assessment study to estimate the demand for Solar Generators and Solar Cells. 

The forecast suggests that only 3.5% of the global installed power demand is addressable by European and Canadian suppliers, with Starlink alone represents 83% of the total and deemed not addressable. This results in 32MW of addressable installed power between 2024 and 2033, driven by Telecom and EO satellites that represent 46% and 17% of the demand respectively. A total of 20 million addressable solar cells is forecasted, evenly split between constellations and single satellites. 

Although silicon cells are resurging in constellations due to lower cost and scalability, most major Silicon (Si) driven programs remain non-addressable to European suppliers. As a result, Gallium arsenide (GaAs) still represents a larger share of the addressable market, serving missions requiring higher efficiency and longer lifetime compared to those using Si-based technologies.  

The European Space Technology Harmonisation provides the framework and the key instruments needed to coordinate space technology at the European level. European and Canadian entities can request access to the harmonisation database containing the full market assessment reports and technology harmonisation dossiers through this link.